Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

The development of optimism is influenced by the interplay of cognitive functions and social experiences, which together shape its complexity and trajectory. Using a direct assessment—the Future Expectation Task—in a longitudinal dataset of Norwegian preschoolers (N = 902), we examined how age, executive function (EF), and social emotional skills (emotion perception, social problem solving, prosocial behavior) predict achievement-specific (expectations of success and achievement) versus general optimism. Structural equation modeling revealed distinct pathways: older age and higher EF predicted lower achievement-specific optimism but greater general optimism, consistent with EF-linked shifts toward learning more from negative than positive outcomes (valenced learning) that calibrate expectations in achievement contexts. Social emotional skills, particularly emotion perception and social competence, were positively associated with general optimism. This study advances cognitive science by linking EF maturation and socio-emotional adaptation to optimism development, offering insight into mechanisms underlying future-oriented thinking.